Analysis and Results

Important

• This section describes the steps Analysis and Results steps of the Vietnam Transport Risk Analysis (VTRA)
• To implement the VTRA without any changes in existing codes, all data described here should be created and stored exactly as indicated below

Preparing Network Data

Purpose:

• Create post-processed transport networks with attributes
• From pre-processed input Shapefiles and collected network attributes data
• For all Province road networks
• For all transport modes at national scale

Execution:

• Load data as described in Collected Data Networks, Cost attributes and Road design attributes
• Run vtra.preprocess.create_transport_networks

Result:

• Create networks with formats and attributes described in Processed Data Assembly Networks
• Store outputs in /data/post_processed_networks/

Preparing Hazard Data

Purpose:

• Convert GeoTiff raster hazard datasets to shapefiles based on masking and selecting values from

  • Single-band raster files
  • Multi-band (3-bands) raster files

Execution:

• Load data as described in Processed Data Assembly Hazards
• Run vtra.preprocess.convert_hazard_data

Result:

• Create hazard shapefiles with names described in excel sheet in Processed Data Assembly Hazards and attributes:

  • ID - equal to 1
  • geometry - Polygon outline of selected hazard

• Store outputs in same paths in directory /data/Hazard_data/

Preparing OD matrix Data

Purpose:

• Create national scale OD matrices at node and province levels from:

  • VITRANSS2 province-scale OD data
  • IFPRI crop data at 1km resolution

• Create province scale OD matrices between roads connecting villages to nearest communes from:

  • Net revenue estimates of commune villages
  • IFPRI crop data at 1km resolution

Execution:

• Load data as described in Networks, VITRANSS2 OD data, IFPRI crop data, RiceAtlas data, Points of interest data, and Administrative Areas with Statistics
• For National OD matrices run vtra.preprocess.national_modes_od_creation
• For Provinces OD matrices run vtra.preprocess.province_roads_access_od_creation

Result:

• Create OD matrices with attributes described in Processed Data Assembly OD matrices
• Store outputs in /results/flow_ods/

Mapping Flows onto Networks

Purpose:

• Map the national-scale OD node level matrix values to network paths

  • For all transport modes at national scale
  • Estimate 2 values - A MIN and a MAX value of flows between each selected OD node pair
  • Based on MIN-MAX generalised costs estimates

• Map the commune access OD node level matrix values to road network paths in Provinces

  • For all roads in the Provinces
  • Estimate 2 values - A MIN and a MAX value of flows between each selected OD node pair
  • Based on MIN-MAX generalised costs estimates

Execution:

• Load data as described in Networks and OD matrices
• For National OD matrices run vtra.flow_mapping.national_modes_flow_paths
• For Provinces OD matrices run vtra.flow_mapping.province_roads_access_flow_paths

Result:

• Store flow excel outputs in /results/flow_mapping_paths/
• Store flow shapefiles in /results/flow_mapping_shapefiles/
• Store flow csv files in /results/flow_mapping_combined/

• National-scale excel sheets results of flow mapping based contain attributes:

  • origin - String node ID of Origin
  • destination - String node ID of Destination
  • o_region - String name of Province of Origin node ID
  • d_region - String name of Province of Destination node ID
  • min_edge_path - List of string of edge IDs for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_edge_path - List of string of edge IDs for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_distance - Float values of estimated distance for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_distance - Float values of estimated distance for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_time - Float values of estimated time for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_time - Float values of estimated time for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_gcost - Float values of estimated generalised cost for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_gcost - Float values of estimated generalised cost for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_vehicle_nums - Float values of estimated vehicle numbers for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_vehicle_nums - Float values of estimated vehicle numbers for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • industry_columns - All daily tonnages of industry columns given in the OD matrix data

• Province-scale excel sheets with results of flow mapping based contain attributes:

  • origin - String node ID of Origin
  • destination - String node ID of Destination
  • min_edge_path - List of string of edge IDs for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_edge_path - List of string of edge IDs for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_netrev - Float values of estimated daily Net Revenue for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_netrev - Float values of estimated daily Net Revenue for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_croptons - Float values of estimated daily crop tonnage for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_croptons - Float values of estimated daily crop tonnage for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_distance - Float values of estimated distance for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_distance - Float values of estimated distance for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_time - Float values of estimated time for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_time - Float values of estimated time for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_gcost - Float values of estimated generalised cost for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_gcost - Float values of estimated generalised cost for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_vehicle_nums - Float values of estimated vehicle numbers for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_vehicle_nums - Float values of estimated vehicle numbers for paths with maximum generalised cost flows

Hazard Exposure

Purpose:

• Intersect hazards and network line and point geometries with hazatd polygons

  • Write final results to Shapefiles

• Collect network-hazard intersection attributes

  • Combine with boundary Polygons to collect network-hazard-boundary intersection attributes
  • Write final results to an Excel sheet

Execution:

• Load shapefiles data as described in Networks and Hazards
• Run vtra.failure_scenario_selection.hazards_networks_intersections
• Run vtra.failure_scenario_selection.hazards_network_intersections_results_collect

Result:

• Store shapefile outputs in the directory /results/networks_hazards_intersection_shapefiles/

• All hazard-edge intersection shapefiles with attributes:

  • edge_id - String name of intersecting edge ID
  • length - Float length of intersection of edge LineString and hazard Polygon
  • geometry - LineString geometry of intersection of edge LineString and hazard Polygon

• All hazard-node intersection shapefile with attributes:

  • node_id - String name of intersecting node ID
  • geometry - Point geometry of intersecting node ID

• Store summarised results in /results/hazard_scenarios/

• Generate excel sheet of network-hazard-boundary intersection with attributes:

  • edge_id/node_id - String name of intersecting edge ID or node ID
  • length - Float length of intersection of edge LineString and hazard Polygon: Only for edges
  • province_id - String/Integer ID of Province
  • province_name - String name of Province in English
  • district_id - String/Integer ID of District
  • district_name - String name of District in English
  • commune_id - String/Integer ID of Commune
  • commune_name - String name of Commune in English
  • sector - String name of transport mode
  • hazard_type - String name of hazard type
  • model - String name of hazard model
  • year - String name of hazard year
  • climate_scenario - String name of hazard scenario
  • probability - Float/String value of hazard probability
  • band_num - Integer value of hazard band
  • min_val - Integer value of minimum value of hazard threshold
  • max_val - Integer value of maximum value of hazard threshold

Hazard weights

Purpose

• Combine failure scenarios across probability levels into single value per hazard type, scenario, network link.

Execution

• Produce hazard scenarios as described above.
• Common functions are defined in vtra.failure_scenario_selection.hazard_network_scenarios
• For national networks, run vtra.failure_scenario_selection.collect_network_hazard_scenarios_national
• For provincial networks, run vtra.failure_scenario_selection.collect_network_hazard_scenarios_provincial

Result

• Combined scenarios in results/hazard_scenarios/{national,provincial}_{mode}_hazard_intersections_risks.csv

  • edge_id - string, name of failed edge
  • hazard_type - string, name of hazard
  • model - string, name of hazard model (if any)
  • climate_scenario - string, name of climate scenario (if any)
  • year - integer, year of hazard data
  • {mode}_length - float, length of edge (mode could be road, rail)
  • min/max_band - integer, hazard band (if any)
  • min/max_height - float, hazard height (if any)
  • min/max_exposure_percent - float, percentage of edge exposed to hazard
  • min/max_duration_wt - float, duration weight
  • min/max_exposure_length - float, length of edge exposed to hazard
  • risk_wt - float, risk weight
  • dam_wt - float, damage weight

Failure Analysis

Purpose:

• Failure analysis of edges in invidiual national-scale networks

  • To estimate flow isolations and rerouting effects on same network

• Failure analysis of edges in national-scale networks with multi-modal options

  • To estimate flow isolations and rerouting effects with multi-modal options

• Failure analysis of edges in province-scale road networks

  • To estimate changing accessibility to commune points

Execution:

• Load network and flow excel data as described in Networks, Mapping Flows onto Networks, and failure scenarios from Hazard exposure
• For National networks failure analysis run vtra.failure.failure_estimation_national
• For National networks failure analysis with multi-modal options run vtra.failure.failure_multi_modal_options
• For Provincial roads failure analysis run vtra.failure.failure_estimation_provinces

Result:

• Store csv outputs in the directory /results/failure_results/
• Store shapefile outputs in /results/failure_shapefiles/

• National-scale All failure scenarios results in /results/failure_results/all_fail_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • origin - String node ID of Origin of disrupted OD flow
  • destination - String node ID of Destination of disrupted OD flow
  • o_region - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • d_region - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_distance - Float value of estimated distance of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_time - Float value of estimated time of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_gcost - Float value of estimated travel cost of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_vehicle_nums - Float value of estimated vehicles of OD journey before disruption
  • new_cost - Float value of estimated cost of OD journey after disruption
  • new_distance - Float value of estimated distance of OD journey after disruption
  • new_path - List of string edge IDs of estimated new route of OD journey after disruption
  • new_time - Float value of estimated time of OD journey after disruption
  • dist_diff - Float value of Post disruption minus per-disruption distance
  • time_diff - Float value Post disruption minus per-disruption timee
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float value of estimated change in rerouting cost
  • industry_columns - Float values of all daily tonnages of industry columns along disrupted OD pairs
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along disrupted OD pairs

• National-scale Isolated OD scenarios - OD flows with no rerouting options in /results/failure_results/isolated_od_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • o_region - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • d_region - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • industry_columns - Float values of all daily tonnages of industry columns along disrupted OD pairs
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along disrupted OD pairs

• National-scale rerouting scenarios - OD flows with rerouting options in /results/failure_results/rerouting_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • o_region - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • d_region - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float value of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along disrupted OD pairs

• National-scale min-max combined scenarios - Combined min-max results along each edge in /results/failure_results/minmax_combined_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages affected by disrupted edge

• National-scale shapefile min-max combined scenarios

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages affted by disrupted edge
  • geometry - LineString geomtry of edges

• Province-scale all failure scenarios results in /results/failure_results/all_fail_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • origin - String node ID of Origin of disrupted OD flow
  • destination - String node ID of Destination of disrupted OD flow
  • o_region - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • d_region - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_distance - Float value of estimated distance of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_time - Float value of estimated time of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_gcost - Float value of estimated travel cost of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_vehicle_nums - Float value of estimated vehicles of OD journey before disruption
  • new_cost - Float value of estimated cost of OD journey after disruption
  • new_distance - Float value of estimated distance of OD journey after disruption
  • new_path - List of string edge IDs of estimated new route of OD journey after disruption
  • new_time - Float value of estimated time of OD journey after disruption
  • dist_diff - Float value of Post disruption minus per-disruption distance
  • time_diff - Float value Post disruption minus per-disruption timee
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float value of estimated change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_netrev - Float values of total daily net revenues along disrupted OD pairs
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily crop tonnages along disrupted OD pairs
  • min_max_econ_impact - Float values of total daily economic impact of disrupted OD pairs

• Province-scale min-max combined scenarios - Combined min-max results oalong each edge in /results/failure_results/minmax_combined_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of estimated change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along edge
  • min/max_netrev - Float values of total daily net revenues along edge
  • min/max_econ_impact - Float value of total daily economic impact of edge

• Min-max combined scenarios - Combined min-max reults of total network impacts of each edge

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of estimated change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along edge
  • min/max_netrev - Float values of total daily net revenues along edge
  • min/max_econ_impact - Float value of total daily economic impact of edge
  • geometry - LineString geometry of edges

Macroeconomic loss Analysis

Purpose:

• Macroeconomic losses analysis due to edge failures in national-scale networks

  • To estimate economic impacts of flow isolations/disruptions
  • To understand the wider economic impacts of these disruptions

Execution:

• Load data described in Macroeconomic Data and OD matrices
• To create the multiregional input-output table for Vietnam, run vtra.mrio.run_mrio
• To perform the loss analysis, run vtra.mria.run_mria

Result:

• Store the new multiregional input-output table in /data/input_data/

  • files starting with IO_VIETNAM_*.xlsx contain:

    • Sheetname T with the full multiregional table
    • Sheetname labels_T with the column and row labels of matrix T
    • Sheetname FD with the final demand columns of the new table
    • Sheetname labels_FD with the column labels of matrix FD
    • Sheetname ExpROW with the export to the Rest of the World columns of the new table
    • Sheetname labels_ExpROW with the column labels of matrix ExpROW
    • Sheetname VA with the value added rows of the new table
    • Sheetname labels_VA with the row labels of matrix VA

• Store csv files in /results/economic_failure_losses/summarized/

• All summarized files have the following attributes:

  • edge_id - String edge IDs
  • total_losses - Value of the total economic losses due to the disruption of the corresponding edge ID

• Store csv files in /results/economic_failure_losses/od_region_losses/

• All od_losses file have the following attributes:

  • edge_id - String edge IDs
  • region - String name of the region
  • dir_losses - Value of the direct losses due to the diruption of the corresponding edge ID in the corresponding region
  • total_losses - Value of the total losses due to the diruption of the corresponding edge ID in the corresponding region
  • ind_losses - Value of the indirect losses due to the diruption of the corresponding edge ID in the corresponding region

Processing Failure Results

Purpose:

• Combine national-scale macroeconomic loss estimates with rerouting losses
• Estimate tonnage shifts from one mode onto others
• Combine economic impacts of partial multi-modal rerouting split

Execution:

• Load data described in Failure Analysis and Macroeconomic loss analysis
• Run vtra.failure.economic_failure_combine_national
• Run vtra.failure.national_failure_transfers
• Run vtra.failure.transfer_costs_modes

Result:

• Store csv files in /results/failure_results/minmax_combined_scenarios/

• Files with names single_edge_failures_transfers_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_shift.csv contain

  • edge_id - String IDs of edges of all multi-modal options for flow transfer
  • min_tons - Float values of minimum tons shifted to edges
  • max_tons - Float values of maximum tons shifted to edges

• Files with names single_edge_failures_minmax_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_disrupt.csv or single_edge_failures_minmax_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_disrupt_multi_modal.csv or single_edge_failures_minmax_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_modal_shift.csv contain

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages affected by disrupted edge
  • min/max_econ_loss - Float values of total daily economic losses
  • min/max_econ_impact - Float values of sum of transport loss and macroeconomic loss

Adaptation

Purpose:

• Generate adaption scenarios/strategies and examine their costs, benefits, net present values and benefit-cost ratios
• For national or provincial roads, based on different types of hazards, road assets and climate-change conditions

Execution:

• Load data described in Networks, Processing Failure Results, and Adaptation Options
• Common functions are in vtra.adaptation.adaptation_options
• Run vtra.adaptation.run_options_national
• Run vtra.adaptation.run_options_provincial

Result:

• Store results as excel sheets in /results/adaptation_results/

• All adaptation results have the following attributes:

  • edge_id - string, edge IDs
  • hazard_type - string, names of hazard types
  • model - string, names of hazard models
  • climate_scenario - string, names of climate scenarios
  • year - integer, values of year of hazard climate models
  • level - integer, road level
  • terrain - string, road terrain (flat/mountain)
  • surface - string, road surface
  • road_class - integer, road class (1-6)
  • road_cond - string, names of road conditions (paved/unpaved)
  • width - float, edge widths in meters
  • road_length - float, edge lengths in meters
  • min/max_band - integer, hazard bands (3, 4 or 5)
  • min/max_height - float, heights in meters of hazard exposure - if flooding
  • min/max_exposure_percent - float, percent of edge length exposed to hazard
  • min/max_duration_wt - float, fraction of maximum duration of disruption considered for edge failure scenario
  • min/max_exposure_length - float, edge length in meters exposed to hazard
  • risk_wt - float, weight given to estimating expected annual losses
  • dam_wt - float, weight given to estimating expected annual damage costs
  • min/max_econ_impact - float, minimum/maximum economic impact in USD/day
  • min/max_benefit - float, minimum/maximum benefit over time in USD
  • min/max_ini_adap_cost - float, minimum/maximum initial adaptation cost in USD
  • min/max_tot_adap_cost - float, minimum/maximum total adaptation cost in USD

  • min/max_ini_rel_share - float, minimum/maximum initial relative shares (per cost

    component)

  • min/max_tot_rel_share - float, minimum/maximum total relative shares (per cost

    component)

  • min/max_bc_ratio - float, minimum/maximum benefit cost ratio
  • min/max_bc_diff - float, minimum/maximum benefit cost difference